The second round of Colombia on Sunday 19 It will be among the closest in the history of the country, if the latest surveys of public opinion are taken into account. Most pollsters show scenarios in which the difference between Gustavo Petro (Historic Pact) Y Rodolfo Hernández (League of Anticorruption Governors) is not greater than three percentage points.
In the recent history of Colombia, there have been three elections in which the winner reached the government by a narrow margin. Misael Pastrana (Conservative Party) won in 1970 with a 1.6-point lead; Julio César Turbay (Liberal Party) was elected in 1978 by a margin of 2.7 and Andres Pastrana (Conservative Party) won in 1994 with a lead of just 2 points. The last three elections were decided in the second roundand in all of them (2010, 2014 and 2018), the winner did so by a wide difference, 42, 15 and 13 percentage points, respectively.
Last weekend the latest polls were published. Of the top four firms, two showed an advantage for Petro and the other two for Hernández.
The National Consulting Center (CNC) published its latest report on June 2 in the magazine Semana. In that survey, Petro had 44.9% voting intention, Hernández 41%, and 3% blank. The survey also presented information on the undecided: 9.4%. This work was carried out through face-to-face interviews with 2172 cases with a margin of error of 2.1%.
The other measurement that placed Petro first is yanhaas. The work was published on June 11 and puts the leftist candidate with 45%, and Hernández with 35%. Blank 13%. This is the only pollster that gives such a wide difference between the two candidates. The sample consisted of 1,234 cases with a margin of error of 3.2%.
Hernández was very critical of Yanhaas: “The seriousness and credibility of this pollster was suspiciously demonstrated on May 29. Petro was favored with 2% (of what he obtained) and I was grotesquely disadvantaged with -15.4%.” On the side of the Historical Pact, this report was celebrated: “Habemus Presidente!”, affirmed Armando Benedetti, one of Petro’s main advisers.
the pollster invasive He presented a very even scenario with Hernández at the head on Sunday the 12th. The League candidate has a 48.2% vote intention, while the Historical Pact candidate has 47.2%. 4.7% would vote blank. In this report, the margin of error is 2.19% and the sample is 2,000 cases.
On Sunday the 12th they also presented a survey Guarumo and EcoAnalytics places Hernández with 48.2%, Petro with 46.5% and 5.3% vote blank. The survey has a 2.5% margin of error and 2,029 people were interviewed.
With this scenario, there is a group of people who are key to defining the election. Analyst Jorge Galindo affirms that there are two and a half million Colombians who are undecided.
Those people who are in uncertainty, are a mixture of indecision with shamemany move in abstention, white and probably Hernandez, he explained.
In Colombia, voting is not compulsory.and in the first round there was a record so far this century with 54.9% participation. Some Colombian analysts have pointed out in recent weeks that this level could drop in this second round.
The age preferences
One of the points where more differences are observed between both candidates is in the age ranges. Among the youngest and up to 40 years old, Petro is the one with the best vote intention. Hernandez, Meanwhile, it has more support among the older than 55 years.
The CNC survey indicates that among the youngest voters, between 18 and 25 years old, Petro has 64% voting intention. For that strip, the Yanhaas poll gives the left-wing candidate a vote intention of 54%. Petro has grown, according to this company, in the range of 35 to 44 years, reaching 48%.
The Invamer survey also highlights that Hernández lost support among the youth population. “The young people, who in the last survey were going towards Rodolfo, are returning to Gustavo Petro; and the adults, who were with Fico Gutiérrez, are now accompanying Rodolfo Hernández with greater vigor,” explained Néstor Morales on the radio station. BluRadio.